Hillary’s America: How The Cultural War Fooled The Left

Hillary - Bill Clinton - Madd MaxxThe left–right political spectrum is a system of classifying political positions, ideologies, and parties.   In France, where the terms originated, the Left has been called “the party of movement” and the Right “the party of order.”  The intermediate stance is called centrism and a person with such a position is a moderate.

Generally, there is agreement that the Left includes anarchists, communists, socialists, progressives, anti-capitalists, anti-imperialists, democratic socialists, greens, left-libertarians, social democrats, and social liberals.  And, the Right includes capitalists, conservatives, monarchists, nationalists, neoconservatives, fascists, neoliberals, reactionaries, racists, imperialists, right-libertarians, social authoritarians, religious fundamentalists, and traditionalists.

In American politics, what we are witnessing today is a Synthesis between Opposing Extremes, organized by special International Banking Interests.

Trailer: Hillary’s America – The History Of The Democratic Party

The ongoing rise of a new modern nationalism across the global and political spectrums is serving the purpose of the international banking interests. The social justice warriors and leftist politicians who have suckled on the socialist nipple of division and fragmentation have been betrayed by the very same people and organizations who originally funded the fake cultural war.

The very same governments and non-governmental organizations who orchestrated and implemented everything from the feminist movement to the recent transgender conditioning are the very same interests who are promoting open borders and mass immigration. These policies are fast undoing decades of cultural and socioeconomic interception (CSI).

A reconciliation between the ideals of feminism and the incremental approach of sharia law through mass immigration is impossible. The obvious question which emerges is why would a specific interest group promote opposing ideals and social movements?

Another related question which can help bring focus to the methods being discussed is the cultural attack on Christianity alongside the self-destructive behavior of Islam which is being allowed and imported into Christian cultures.

The obvious answer is that both are meant to transform the other.   A few decades from now both the Christian religion and the Islamic faith will be destroyed and replaced with the inevitable synthesis of the consolidation of both. This is the thesis and anti-thesis becoming the synthesis.

The simple terminology of the above dynamic is running parallel to the introduction of the eastern belief systems into the Christian world. This new age Buddhism introduction began decades ago and has reached a very common balance throughout the core population in the west.

The same methodology is playing out in the political realm. The politics of the left and the politics of the right serve the same thesis and anti-thesis movement towards synthesis.  Obviously, the population is divided and fragmented along well defined political fault lines. You are either pro-life or pro-choice. You are either pro-guns or anti-guns. Etc, etc.

The same script is used to thoroughly manipulate the masses into accepting a well-engineered and purposeful synthesis which moves everyone into the middle ground. The extremes which exist on both ends of the spectrum in religion and politics are so unforgiving and destructive in their promotion that a balance will provide the tired populations with a viable solution to the ongoing troubles and divisions in the world.

While those on the left thought they were winning some make-believe cultural war, the international banking interests who are engineering the world of tomorrow have been using them and the manufactured cultural war to create an extreme position which is strategically placed in opposition to the similar manufactured right.

The difference is that the left thought they were winning while the right thought they were losing. One was an offensive movement while the other was defensive. Both movements are creating a middle ground.

The rise of Trump and the anti-immigration movements around the world are the first shifts to the center.

In America, politicians are even openly stating that Donald Trump is not a true conservative and by his nomination the Republican Party has forever been changed. The same script is being applied to the Democrats. Hillary Clinton’s nomination and the subsequent failure of her Presidential run will alter American politics forever.

The false cultural war was a ruse to manufacture an internationalist middle ground which would re-organize American politics and western culture to have it more aligned with the globalist agenda of consolidation and world governance. Both left and right were used but none more so than the left which thought they were actually winning some meaningful culture war against the old world.

Look carefully, and you’ll see the betrayal is already being felt as the left begins to feast on itself.

2nd Amendment and a Thomas Jefferson Assault Riffle

Look At Thomas Jefferson’s ‘Assault Rifle’ with High Capacity Magazines

Girandoni-Air-Rifle

If you ever hear a gun control advocate say that the Founding Fathers could never have imagined and would not have allowed possession of “assault weapons” under the Second Amendment, tell them they don’t know much about American history.

The Founding Fathers not only knew about assault weapons, some owned them. Thomas Jefferson bought assault weapons and sent them on the Lewis and Clark expedition.

In fact, these assault weapons were .46 caliber, military, magazine fed, rifles with high capacity magazines capable of firing 22 shots in 60 seconds.

They even came with four, 22 round speedloaders.

The Founding Fathers not only knew about assault weapons, they did not exclude them from the Second Amendment.

Read the article and watch the short video below for a demonstration of  Thomas Jefferson’s “Assault Rilfe”

One of the assault rifles that went on the Lewis and Clark expedition is owned by and is on display at the NRA’s National Firearms Museum in Fairfax, Virginia.  View it here:  NRA’s Lewis & Clark Assault Rifle

Read more: http://www.ammoland.com/2014/06/look-at-thomas-jeffersons-assault-rifle/#ixzz4BuKzzp94


Published on Jun 7, 2014

http://www.forgottenweapons.com

The Girardoni (also spelled Girandoni) air rifle was a very advanced design adopted in 1780 by the Austrian Army. While the standard arm of the day was a single-shot flintlock, the Girardoni offered a massive firepower advantage to the men who carried it. The guns (designed by Bartholomäus Girardoni, of Vienna) had a magazine capacity of 22 round balls, which could all be fired within 60 seconds. The balls were .46 caliber, weighing approximately 153 grains, and were propelled at 400-450 feet per second. They were rumored to be silent, but actually had a loud report (although quieter than gunpowder firearms). One of these rifles was carried by the Lewis & Clark expedition into the American West.

The Austrian Army used them for a relatively short time – they were taken out of service by Imperial order in 1788, and issued back to Tyrolian sniper units only in 1792. The reasons for their replacement were more logistical than the result of any actual shortcoming with Girardoni’s design. The problem was that they required special training to use (compared to a normal firearm), required specially trained and equipped gunsmiths to repair and maintain, and difficulty maintaining them in combat conditions. Dr. Robert Beeman has written an outstanding illustrated article on Austrian airguns in general and the Girardoni in particular, which I highly recommend for anyone interested in more detail on these fascinating weapons:

http://www.beemans.net/Austrian%20air…

However, I am privileged to be able to share with you this video of an original 1780 Girardoni put together by Luke Haag for presentation at the 2014 AFTE conference in Seattle. Mr. Haag does a great job explaining the operation of the gun, its capabilities and accessories.

Federal Reserve brings back “taxation without representation”

In February 1768, a revolutionary article entitled “No taxation without representation” was published London Magazine.

banksters-we-own-youThe article was a re-print of an impassioned speech made by Lord Camden arguing in parliament against Britain’s oppressive tax policies in the American colonies.

Britain had been milking the colonists like medieval serfs.  And the idea of ‘no taxation without representation’ was revolutionary, of course, because it became a rallying cry for the American Revolution.  The idea was simple: colonists had no elected officials representing their interests in the British government, therefore they were being taxed without their consent.

To the colonists, this was tantamount to robbery.  Thomas Jefferson even included “imposing taxes without our consent” on the long list of grievances claimed against Great Britain in the Declaration of Independence.  It was enough of a reason to go to war.

These days we’re taught in our government-controlled schools that taxation without representation is a thing of the past, because, of course, we can vote for (or against) the politicians who create tax policy.  But this is a complete charade. Here’s an example:

Just yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep interest rates at 0.25%.

Now, this is all part of a carefully contrived, ridiculous monetary system in which non-elected Fed officials raise and lower rates to induce people to adjust their spending habits.  When they want us little people to spend more money, they cut interest rates; and when they want us to spend less, they raise interest rates.

It’s incredibly offensive when you think about it– the entire financial system is underpinned by a belief that a committee of bureaucrats knows better than us about what we should be doing with our own money.

So this time around the grand committee decided to keep interest rates steady at 0.25%.  Depending on your financial situation, this has tremendous implications.  If you’re in debt up to your eyeballs (like the US government), low interest rates might seem great.  It also  means the U.S. government can continue to borrow even more money and go even deeper into debt, as the expense of WE THE PEOPLE!  Low interest rates are also great for banks, because they can borrow for nothing from the Fed, then earn a handsome profit on that free money.

But, if you’re a responsible saver, low interest rates are debilitating. Banks only pay their depositors about 0.1% interest. Yet according to the US Labor Department, inflation is at least 1.1%, and has averaged 2.23% since 2000.  This means that when adjusted for inflation, anyone who bothers saving money is losing at least 1% every single year.  That might not sound like much. But compounded over a longer period, it can lead to a substantial difference in your standard of living.

Maybe that’s why the U.S. government’s own numbers show that wages, when adjusted for inflation, are far lower than they were even 15 years ago.  Or maybe it is why wealth inequality is now at a level not seen since the Great Depression?  Or why alarming data from 2015 Pew Research shows that the middle class is now no longer the dominant socioeconomic stratum in the United States?

Ron Paul, during his days running as a presidential candidate (2008 & 2012),  used to frequently remark that inflation is an invisible tax on the middle class.

And he’s right!

The combination of inflation and low interest rates benefits certain people, while it causes middle class people’s savings to lose purchasing power.  This constitutes a transfer of wealth from savers to debtors.  In other words, it’s a tax.  Yet unlike a normal tax which is passed by Congress, this inflation/interest rate tax is created by the Federal Reserve central bank.

You and I don’t get to vote for the twelve members of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) who dictate interest policy.  In fact, based on the way the Federal Reserve works, the majority of the committee members are actually appointed by commercial banks.

Here’s the quick version: there are twelve Federal Reserve banks in the US banking system.  They are located in major cities like New York, San Francisco, St. Louis, Dallas, etc.  And each Federal Reserve bank has its own separate Board of Directors.  Yet two-thirds of the board members for each Federal Reserve bank are appointed by big Wall Street banks like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs.

And oh, what a surprise, the last three major appointments to the Federal Reserve were all former high-level Goldman Sachs employees.

These guys aren’t even trying to hide the fact that Wall Street banks control the Fed.

So, Wall Street banks control the boards of directors at the Fed banks. The Fed bank boards of directors appoint the committee members who set monetary policy.

And the monetary policy they set ends up being a gigantic tax… a transfer of wealth from the middle class to a tiny group of beneficiaries, including the US government and the banks themselves.

This is an unbelievable scam… and it truly is taxation without representation.

Unelected bureaucrats impose their will over the entire financial system in a way that benefits a handful of people at the expense of everyone else.

And we have absolutely no say in the matter.

Well, actually we do.

Even though we can’t vote for the boards of directors at the various Federal Reserve banks like Citigroup and Goldman Sachs can do, we are able to vote with our dollars.

Think about it: every single dollar that you keep in this poor excuse for a financial system is a tacit vote in favor of the corruption.

Every dollar you take out of the system is a vote against it.

And as we’ve explored before, there are substantial options for your savings– precious metals, cryptocurrencies, productive real estate, safe P2P arrangements with strong yields, and well-capitalized banks abroad that actually pay sufficient interest to keep up with inflation.

The Nacirema After The Fall: World War III by Currency War and International Monetary System Reform

A Reformed American Economic Reality Emerges in October 2016

America-After-the-Fall

“Make America Great Again” aligns with the larger mandates of the multilateral transition soon coming.  The next World War will be currency wars and the death of money through the coming collapse of the international monetary system.  Here are some details about it.

On September 4th and 5th China will host a G20 Summit in the city of Hangzhou.  The Hangzhou Summit represents the end of the old economic order and the birth of a new economic order.  It marks the major transition point between the USD-based monetary framework and the SDR-based multilateral monetary framework.

The factual nature of this transition is bookmarked within the publications of international institutions and central banks around the world.  The alignment on mandates and policy reform harness the financial momentum which has been developing alongside the growing imbalances in the international monetary system.

The road to full monetary and financial awareness regarding the effects of global imbalances caused by the USD-based framework has been a long and arduous journey through waves of economic stability and financial volatility.  Along the way there have been many who have promoted the concept of a multilateral framework and the elimination of financial corruption.

Whether these objectives are achieved in the coming years is dependent upon a larger evolution of how capital is moved around the world.  The role of one domestic currency as the global reserve asset has created a fertile environment for those wanting unfair advantage over mass populations and whole nations.

As such, rebalancing world wealth through a true multilateral monetary framework will move forward the lofty goals and ideals of those seeking a fairer world.  But with those changes come enhanced risk of shifting sovereign control to a larger and more global ideology.  Much like the individual passed sovereign status to a nation state, the nation state will pass sovereign status to a supra-national state under a mandate of global governance.

All nations under one mandate.

The Hangzhou Summit is focused on these mandates.  Some of the topics being discussed include how to transition the G20 into an Economic Security Council arm of the United Nations, the UN 2030 Agenda, large scale sovereign debt restructuring through the International Monetary Fund with the utilization of substitution accounts, with a secondary restructuring taking place through the use of Collective Action Clauses.

The broader use of the Special Drawing Right (SDR) will also be at the forefront of conversation, as China begins the process of issuing SDR denominated bonds and implementing an SDR borrowing platform.  These objectives are running parallel to the new SDR basket composition which is coming into effect in October.  This new basket will include the Chinese renminbi and will be the turning point from which the buildup period for a global reserve asset begins.

China will also be focused on strengthening its network of renminbi denominated institutions, such as the AIIB, New Silk Road Fund, China Development Bank, BRICS New Development Bank, and the transformation of the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateral into a regional monetary fund which is meant to be integrated within the mandates of the more macro IMF.

The new economic order will see American control of world wealth reduced in a descending sliding scale type process, where foreign exchange reserve diversification will cause geopolitical shifts on a large and active chess board.  These shifts will increase in the coming years and will be sold to the American population as the strengthening of nationalism as opposed the loss of international power and influence.

A new US political trend has emerged to match the transition points of the multilateral framework.  A Trump presidency is aligned with the larger objectives of the international banking interests.  The corruption which has developed within the USD-based framework has manifested as corruption within domestic politics.

The existing ideologies of both the Democratic and Republican parties are reflective of this corruption.  With the larger monetary changes taking place it is expected that American politics will also be transformed.  The past strategies of Bush and Clinton politics have been based on the aforementioned corruption and no longer have a place within the international discourse which is evolving.

Financial and political corruption within American institutions will be semi-culled and the Trump brand will package and present America’s new international character as Make America Great Again.  The untold truth of this slogan is that it aligns with the larger mandates of the multilateral transition.

Somebody should have told Clinton and other American political elites who have suckled off the US dollar.

The news media and other official channels will never openly discuss these facts, but rest assured that the American elite who have invested in the control of domestic information will eventually align with these macro mandates out of pure business interest.

America after the fall will become what it was meant to be – one nation under God.  – JC Collins

How Wolves Changed the Eco System of Yellow Stone National Park

Published on Feb 13, 2014

If you likes How Wolves Change Rivers, check out How Whales Change Climate: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M18Hx…

For more from George Monbiot, visit http://www.monbiot.com/ and for more on “rewilding” visit http://bit.ly/1hKGemK and/or check out George Monbiot’s book Feral: rewilding the land, the sea and human life: http://amzn.to/1fjgirx

NOTE: There are “elk” pictured in this video when the narrator is referring to “deer.” This is because the narrator is British and the British word for “elk” is “red deer” or “deer” for short. The scientific report this is based on refers to elk so we wanted to be accurate with the truth of the story.

“When we try to pick out anything by itself, we find it hitched to everything else in the Universe.” – John Muir

When wolves were reintroduced to Yellowstone National Park in the United States after being absent nearly 70 years, the most remarkable “trophic cascade” occurred. What is a trophic cascade and how exactly do wolves change rivers? George Monbiot explains in this movie remix.

Narration from TED: “For more wonder, rewild the world” by George Monbiot. Watch the full talk, here: http://bit.ly/N3m62h

B-Roll Credits:
“Greater Yellowstone Coalition – Wolves” (http://bit.ly/1lK4LaT)
“Wolf Mountain” (http://bit.ly/1hgi6JE)
“Primodial – Yellowstone” (https://vimeo.com/77097538)
“Timelapse: Yellowstone National Park” (http://bit.ly/1kF5axc)
“Yellowstone” (http://bit.ly/1bPI6DM)
“Howling Wolves – Heulende Wölfe” (http://bit.ly/1c2Oidv)
“Fooled by Nature: Beaver Dams” (http://bit.ly/NGgQSU)

Music Credits:
“Unfoldment, Revealment, Evolution, Exposition, Integration, Arson” by Chris Zabriskie (http://bit.ly/1c2uckW)

This video was edited by Steve Agnos with editorial assistance from Chris Agnos (who also conceived the idea for the video) the brothers behind Sustainable Man. For more from Steve Agnos visit https://vimeo.com/steveagnos or https://vimeo.com/thesustainableman

For any concerns or questions, you may contact us at http://sustainableman.org/contact/

FAIR USE NOTICE: This video may contain copyrighted material. Such material is made available for educational purposes only. This constitutes a ‘fair use’ of any such copyrighted material as provided for in Title 17 U.S.C. section 106A-117 of the US Copyright Law.

Digital Humanity Creates Faster, Tighter Centralization and Sameness

With the arrival of the internet and the age of information, humanity has never had so much knowledge available at its fingertips.  A human today can learn more in a 24 hour period than a person could in their whole life only a century or two ago.Maverick - the digital man

Sitting here today I can, with a few key strokes, access the full spectrum of MIT curriculum material.  It’s called MIT Open Course Ware and it’s slogan is “Unlocking Knowledge, Empowering Minds”.

There is another website called Khan Academy where you can become proficient in anything from Macro Economics to Cosmology.

With such a volume of information and education available for free, how sustainable can the standard western model of education remain?  The evolution of the education system into a multilateral structure will be centralized around a method of testing the level and aptitude of an individuals knowledge and understanding.

Already today international corporations are using such testing models on current and prospective employees.  It’s interesting to note that these methods of aptitude testing first started within the military and government industries before being utilized on a broader scale.  Its these methodologies which we will see evolve further into a form of cultural standard.

Soon a diploma on the wall will be as meaningless as the paper its printed on.  People who seek out information of their own accord and take the time to learn a specific subject, just because, have a proven track record of being more creative at problem solving.  These people are able to find solutions and overcome challenges where traditionally educated workers have not.

Free learning and access to unlimited education can just as easily corral creativity as expand it.  And that is where the psychological twist comes into play.

Contrary to what others may profess, the age of information will not free mankind from the clutches of some evil elite or banking cartel.  The age of information has guaranteed a faster and tighter centralization.  As more and more information and knowledge comes available, it only pushes humanity further and further into the trap and illusion of matter.

Look at the world in the last 100 years and tell me I’m wrong.

Everyone has heard the saying “knowledge is power” but few have stopped to ponder that it is what you do with that knowledge which is meaningful.  Never mind the false power paradigm which only leads to suffering.  One who has attained a selfless level of knowledge will quickly understand that power is also an illusion.

As such, the age of information only quickens the centralization process by feeding us an overwhelming amount of information which we have no reference point from which to process.  The reference point on reality and life in general is negated in an attempt to further centralize humanity for the purpose of sameness.  True creativity is compartmentalized to ensure this sameness is maintained.

(It’s my proposition that this compartmentalization is a subconscious process by which the human mind seeks sameness in order to satisfy its own wanton desire.  If all are the same than no one is different and everything is okay.  The educational system is anything but universal and truthful.  Its purpose is knowledge compartmentalized and the promotion of social sameness.)

The education system which is emerging in support of the multilateral financial system and its dominate SDR supra-sovereign currency will captivate the masses with words such as empower, knowledge, purpose, and future.  It will make promises of freeing the mind to pursue worthwhile goals that meet our individual aspirations but also serve humanity.

Doesn’t seem so bad.

Except the individual will be sacrificed upon the alter of knowledgeable sameness.  Perhaps the centralization process, whether its financial, educational, medical, ideological, theological, or cultural, will simply have to run its course before resetting once again to a de-centralized and more individualistic anchor.

My Guitar Gently Weeps – Prince (2004)

While His Guitar Gently Weeps:
How Prince took over at the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame

It’s hard to know when we’re living in the good times.  It’s hard to know what you’re going to look back on and wish you could have been more present for.  Maybe it’s a family reunion that turns out to be the last, or a low-rent rendezvous with a sweetheart in another life.  Maybe it’ll be tonight when you get high and watch Prince’s Purple Rain.  You might look back and think, “My gosh, that was so good.”

So, I invite you to watch two minutes and 50 seconds of Prince’s life where more than 24 million people have watched him perform the Beatles’ “While My Guitar Gently Weeps” in honor of George Harrison.  His appearance alongside Tom Petty, Jeff Lynne, Steve Winwood and George’s son, Dhani, produces the kind of music alchemy that musicians like myself dream of when assembling a one-off band of music gypsies.

In my mind, there is no question that Prince was fully there the night of his induction into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame (2004).  He clearly enjoyed his performance, and he knows his guitar solo is transcendent. It is truly electric!

“While My Guitar Gently Weeps” is a classic Beatle song, and watching Tom Petty and Jeff Lynne sing it with George’s son is nice.  But, to watch the full video brings into sharp contrast that with Prince, a true guitar-player-legend-performer is entering your life at the 3:24 mark, and does not exit until the end of the video.

3:24. Let’s consider that mark.  Prince has been onstage all along, but the video director has not featured him… yet.  Then Dhani Harrison smiles as he looks left, and Prince steps forward.  For the next 30 seconds, you’re in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame normalcy zone.  Keep going.  Prince starts cooking on his guitar at 3:56.

4:01. Prince does this pinch-harmonic solo that lets you know the music is flat-out ON! While these kinds of solos  are almost always bad – if anyone else were playing over a Beatles’ song, it would be straight trash.  But this is Prince, so it’s incredible.  Then he heads into these bended notes that echo the original version’s solo.  It’s haunting and sweet and distinct.  With that behind him, Prince turns to Petty and Harrison and gives them a look.  It’s almost like he’s saying, “You have no idea what you’re in for.”  He’s right.

4:33.  He does this move with his guitar that looks like he’s reloading a shotgun.  He does this move with his guitar that looks like he’s reloading a shotgun.  You can find other guitar players who do it.  Bruce Springsteen did it during “Badlands” in concert.  Slash has done it in videos.  It’s a cool move if you are cool.  Prince is the coolest, so no one will ever look cooler doing it than this.

Now, That's Just Genius!
Tom Petty (left) and Dhani Harrison look on as Prince both honors and shreds George Harrison’s guitar solo while gracefully falling backward into the arms of a security guard.

4:39.  Every time I watch the next 10 seconds, I become full of inspiration.  This is how I see it:

  • Prince, mid-solo, turns to face Petty and Harrison and makes eye contact
  • Petty, for a moment, looks miffed.  Maybe not miffed, but not thrilled.  Then he breaks into a smile as he sees what’s about to happen.
  • A grinning Harrison suddenly becomes all of us.  He is watching Prince play the solo while falling backward toward the crowd and into the arms of a security guard.

The moment is everything you want from music – admiration, joy, fun, spontaneity.  Harrison, the kid, is alive while memorializing his father.

4:56.  During a lull, Prince gives Petty a look that tells us he knows exactly what he just did.

5:05.  Deep down in a finger-tappy, Van Halen—y section, Prince delivers some of history’s best guitar face.  He is feeling it because everyone is feeling it – and he is everyone.

5:15.  Prince took us up the mountains; now he’s going to walk us back down.  After nearly two minutes of blistering riffs that would make Steve Vai curl up and die, he enters cooldown mode with a few screaming single-note string bends, followed by weird Jonny Greenwood—style ascending harmonic chords that shouldn’t feel right but fit perfectly in the pocket.  They are pulling when everything else pushes.

5:45.  Petty, Lynne and Harrison come back in with the chorus.  Prince accents the proceedings with wailing notes, just to let you know he’s still in charge.

6:00.  Prince fires of a final flurry, and the band finishes in unison.

6:10.  Prince does the coolest thing I have ever seen anyone do – an outstanding stage exit.

In closing, he takes off his guitar, throws it into the sky, and struts offstage like the “skinny dude with the high voice” that he was and always will be.

DONG – History and Revaluation

WHY THE VIETNAMESE DONG WILL RESET

Economic Potential and Modernization

By JC Collins

Also see the post The Dongs Revaluation is Imminent

Vietnam Modernization

Vietnam has achieved a truly remarkable thing.  While being a dumping ground for U.S. dollar inflation and having its own currency consistently devalued, Vietnam has managed to produce one of the fastest economic expansions and modernizations in the history of the world.  It’s a model of modernization built upon the experience and lessons of China, Korea, and other Asian countries which developed before it.

The modernization of Europe and the Americas took centuries.  The modernization of China was achieved in approximately 50 years.  Compare that to the astonishing modernization which only began in Vietnam in the mid 1990’s.  In less than 20 years, the country has turned from a destitute population on the verge of starvation to an expanding middle class that is considered by all economic indicators to be the fastest such expansion in the world.

In true Confucian fashion, Vietnam utilized the tactics of economic warfare deployed against it as a tool of economic development.  The exchange rate of the dong was devalued on a continually basis to encourage use of the U.S. dollar within the country.  This ensured another market for the dollars inflation to be sent to avoid a hyper-inflation situation back home.

In addition, the Vietnamese understood the economic potential of their resources and trade capability.  The strategy was one of patience and long term gain for short term detriment.

Vietnam is much more than the story of an American war of aggression or gold theft.  For our purposes here, we will start our brief history with the Multilateral Co-Operation Agreement made between the NATO Countries (except Ireland) in January of 1950.  The purpose of this agreement was to control the type and level of trade between the western world and the communist world.

Vietnam War Victims

South Vietnam held the largest agricultural potential while the North held most of the heavy industry, such as coal, steel, tin, and phosphate fertilizer.  The full potential of the offshore oil and gas fields was still unknown.

There were many reasons for the western involvement in Vietnam which began many years before, with the French, and later America.  The threat of communism was a smoke screen for something else which we will not touch on here as the scale of it will only serve to dwarf this essay on currency revaluation.  There is also the Yamashita gold theft and recovery attempt which we touched on inAmerica’s Karma and World War Two Gold Theft.  During the time period between WW2 and the dissolution of the Soviet Union on December 26, 1991, Vietnam depended on economic subsidies from the larger communist state.  When these subsidies ended, trade with the United States became very important for Vietnam.

Over the years there have been many variations of the dong currency with varying exchange rates.  The different forms of structure to the dong have been the following:

  1. Commercial Currency
  2. Non-Commercial Currency
  3. Official Rate
  4. Convertible Currency
  5. Effective Rate
  6. Auction Fixing (this structure becomes important in 1991)

It’s too much too breakdown and cover each currency type and its value fluctuations over the years so we will focus in on the important dates and valuations.

On December 18, 1971, after the U.S. dollar devaluation, the official exchange rate of the dong was 2.71 per 1 dollar.

On February 13, 1973, after another U.S. dollar devaluation, the official exchange rate was 2.44 per 1 dollar.

On May 3, 1978, a uniform dong was introduced at an exchange rate of 2.17 per 1 dollar.  It’s interesting to note that during this time period the dong to dollar exchange rate was maintained within a narrow margin while the SDR rate for the dong was allowed to fluctuate.  This SDR fluctuation was a foreshadowing of things yet to come in our present time.  See SDR’s and the New Bretton Woods.

On July 6, 1981 the exchange rate was VND 9.045 per 1 dollar.

On Sept 14, 1985, the State Bank of Vietnam was authorized to issue a new dong currency and withdraw the old ones from circulation.  One old dong got you 10 new dong. The new exchange rate was set at 15 dong to 1 dollar.

Devaluation of the dong continued throughout the 1980’s which was actually encouraging what little trade Vietnam participated in.

On March 13, 1989 the multiple currency structure as outlined above was ended and a unified currency structure was put in place.  The commercial dong and non-commercial dong were merged and the exchange rate was set at 4500 dong per 1 dollar.  This was 9 months before the Berlin Wall began its fall which lead to the eventual collapse of the Soviet Union.  Remember that Vietnam depended on subsidies from the U.S.S.R.  Perhaps this constitutes a slow transition from subsidies to light import and exports.

On August 30, 1991 there was put in place a method of foreign exchange auction, which was only allowed in U.S. dollars, to support banks and trade organizations helping economic interests needing such foreign exchanges.  This move created the inflation dumping grounds for the U.S. dollar.

The rate of the dong today is approximately 21,000 to 1 dollar.

Back in the year 1975 Vietnam wanted to exploit its rich agricultural and timber resources in the South and develop its coal production in the North, as well as producing oil and gas from its offshore fields.  Unfortunately for Vietnam they were under a trade embargo from the United States.  The Export Administration Act of 1969, amended in 1979, restricted the export and/or re-export of technology which originated in America.  The embargo was only on North Vietnam at first but was extended to the South in 1975.

Boeing B-52D

Post war Vietnam is one of only a handful of countries that did not experience a reconstruction boom after hostilities ended.  In fact, they experienced a drastic economic deterioration.  Through economic sanctions, a ban on imports to Vietnam produced a shortage of foreign exchange capital required for the reconstruction process.   Sanctions also lead to extremely high unemployment in the export industries and a reduced industrial capacity.

A similar ban on exports deprived the country of the essential commodities required for development and growth.  It also denied Vietnam access to foreign capital markets to raise funds for building factories and other industrial facilities.

Exports to communist countries were considered a violation of America’s strategic interest.  The embargo even blocked aid from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.  Vietnam, to its credit, did the only thing it could do by focusing on exporting natural resources and cheap labor to a handful of countries that stood in violation of the embargo.  This was a bare sustenance strategy by Vietnam which did not eliminate starvation and destitution in the country.

Throughout this time period Vietnam was subjected to typhoons, floods, and droughts which served to severely hinder its attempts at food grain production.  This weather caused considerable damage to Vietnam’s agricultural lands.

Vietnam Poor

It brings into question the use of weather manipulation weapons which may have been used against the country.  For those who doubt the reality of such weapons, I suggest you ask yourself why Defense Secretary William Cohen stated the existence of weather and earthquake causing weapons in his speech given at a 1997 Conference on Terrorism in Athens, GA.  I will leave this area to the reader for further exploration.

When the Cold War finally ended many American business interests wanted the sanctions lifted immediately so as to capitalize on the virgin market.  But the U.S. would not lift them.

But with the low exchange rate of the dong to dollar, other countries couldn’t resist the lure of doing business in Vietnam and making the windfall on the other end.  Countries that began investing in Vietnamese imports and exports were:

  1. Britain
  2. France
  3. Australia
  4. Belgium
  5. The Netherlands
  6. Sweden
  7. South Korea
  8. Taiwan
  9. Hong Kong
  10. Thailand
  11. Japan (unofficially)

It got to be that the United States was the only country that still imposed sanctions on Vietnam.  The U.S. dollar was being side stepped in trade by the above countries in areas such as:

  1. Oil
  2. Fishing
  3. Seafood Processing
  4. Textiles
  5. Garment Making
  6. Tourism
  7. Hotels
  8. Telecommunications

It wasn’t long before the United Stated used its influence and power within the International Monetary Fund to devalue the dong even further while lifting the sanctions.  The intent of this move was to ensure that Vietnam’s trade would be balanced in dollars and that the value of the dong would stay low encouraging the Vietnamese people to use the dollar instead of their own currency.  This is the blueprint for dollar inflation dumping throughout the world.

The sanctions themselves were lifted in stages:

  1. December, 1991, travel to Vietnam was allowed.
  2. October, 1992, allowed for telecommunication links with Vietnam, commercial sales for necessities, as well as lifting restrictions on non-profit organizations and authorized the signing of pre-embargo lifting contracts.  (read back door deals for American companies)

On January 27, 1994, the U.S. Senate voted to lift sanctions by a vote of 62 to 38.  Clinton officially ended the embargo on February 4, 1994.  The reason given was the 2238 MIA soldiers from the war.  This was an absurd position as Vietnam itself had over 100,000 missing in action and the country itself was left bombed and destitute.

On October 14, 1994, forex markets began trading the dong against 6 other currencies within a range set by the State Bank of Vietnam.  This in essence is the structure that the dong trades within today.

It was a combination of events that lead to the dropping of sanctions.  First the collapse of the Soviet Union created an opportunity for Vietnam to get off subsidies and begin real trade.  This process was painful but the end results lead to the rest of the world recognizing Vietnam’s true economic growth and development potential, which in turn forced America to lift the embargo for the purpose of ensuring that the dollar wasn’t left out of the trade balancing.

Vietnam in turn accepted the devaluations of the dong as a tactic to attract the foreign investment in its exports and imports.  Vietnam’s number one goal was development, modernization, and integration into the world economy.

Vietnam McDonalds

Today, Vietnam is one of the fastest growing economies in the world.  It has the fastest growing middle class and its GDP to debt ratio has been maintained within the 30% to 35% range for years.  Its oil and gas fields are being developed, it’s the second largest exporter of rice in the world, Samsung is moving its factories into the country, Starbucks is opening locations, and in fact McDonald’s just opened their first location in the country just last weekend.

The list of economic milestones for Vietnam is growing by the day.  The amount of U.S. dollars held in the country’s foreign reserves has been decreasing for the past few years and the import of gold is staggering.  As we presented previously, the Shanghai Gold Exchange through agreements with China will increase the gold holdings in many Asian countries by way of gold vault storage and trade agreements.  The Vietnamese government itself is making known its intent to monetize all the private gold in the country to support the value of the dong.

The hard working Vietnamese people will require a strong and stable currency to ensure reliable labor energy wealth storage.  It’s only a matter of time now before the I.M.F. 2010 Code of Reforms are passed through the U.S. Congress and the Executive Board of the I.M.F. is restructured to reflect the economic reality of the world today.  When this happens the dollar will lose its reserve currency status and the dong will be released from it peg.  When this happens I would suspect that the value of the dong, not officially recognized today as it has been stretched like elastics, due to the economic growth and develop, and will snap back to its true economic value, which is reflected in those very same growth and development indicators.

What will the rate be?  Based on the upcoming SDR composition and allocation system of the International Monetary Fund, who can say with any measure of reliability, there are too many factors which need to be considered and weighed against others factors.

There is one other area where Vietnam has far advanced on the United States.  And that is in limiting the rent seeking abilities of the small ruling elite within the country.  Trade and business between the provinces within Vietnam have been cleared of corruption for the most part and a system of contested politics is in place.  This system of contested politics is very real and not the side show circus of the western world’s political buffoonery.  At the end of 2013 Vietnam executed two of the top bankers in the country for corruption and crimes against the people.    – JC Collins

Also see:

SDR Supplemental:  VND or VNN?  IQD or IQN? 

The New Exchange Rate System – Posted Feb 19, 2014.

The American Dollar is Dumping Vietnam – Posted May 16, 2014.

Vietnam Seeks Dong Stability as Dollar Nears Collapse – Posted July 1, 2014.

A Global Currency Reset – Posted May 28, 2014.

7 THOUGHTS ON “WHY THE VIETNAMESE DONG WILL RESET”

  1. “At the end of 2013 Vietnam executed two of the top bankers in the country for corruption and crimes against the people.”

    Coming to a country near you.

  2. Very informative article. Please could you explain what you mean by ‘inflation dumping ground’ – excuse my ignorance. Also can you direct me to a website that explains what you allude to as the real reasons for the Vietnam. So enjoy your writing. Thank you

  3. The images you attach to this excellent article are haunting and are direct in revealing just some examples of Western aggression in its most egregious form. It’s time all of America honor Vietnam and its amazing and resilient people.

  4. Wow, great article, how can one be so evil, what a turn around for this country, this was really back against the wall. As humans we are not to let poverty take place, when we can help!

     

FUNDAMENTALS OF MULTILATERAL INVESTING

In Lesson One we reviewed the definition of Capital, the relationship between Savers and Users of Capital, and we learned about Financial Instruments, which act as the Intermediariesbetween Savers and Users

In Lesson Two we reviewed the importance of Capital Markets and the need for Efficient Capital Markets, and why this is important for China and other emerging nations to develop in order for a multilateral framework to work effectively.


What is Capital? The Relationship between Savers and Users. Financial Instruments.

By JC Collins

Within our lives finance and economics are two of the most important things to understand.  The effects which finance and economics have upon our lives, both direct and indirect, can be extremely negative if we do not take the time to learn and understand the fundamentals.

Applying that knowledge to our own personal situations can involve risk.  But this risk can be minimized with knowledge and comprehension.  From that a positive and rewarding experience can be realized and our own individual financial well-being and socioeconomic position can be enhanced.

The intent of the added service of the Fundamentals of Multilateral Investing Series is to provide a base understanding of the investing aspect of finance and economics to POM subscribers.  Each segment will be focused on a specific aspect of investing, starting with the basics and working our way into the more complex multilateral subsets.

In this first installment of the Fundamentals of Multilateral Investing Series we will focus on the basic understanding of capital and the source of capital.  We will explore the relationship betweenSavers of Capital and Users of Capital.

We will also define the mechanisms (securities, instruments, or intermediaries) which allow for the transfer of capital from Savers toUsers.

In any economy, whether regional, national, or international, there are two types of individuals, or entities.  There are the Savers of Capital and there are the Users of Capital.

Capital is wealth.

Here on POM we consider wealth to be the accumulation of human time and labor.  This accumulation of human time and labor fits well with the institutional definition of wealth.  Wealth is not about what you make but about what you can keep.  Therefore, the accumulation of human time and labor would signify an increased ability to keep what we make.

In contrast, not keeping what we make is the opposite of wealth.  It is the bleeding of wealth, or human time and labor.  Debt is the main cause of our inability to not keep what we make.

Wealth, the accumulation of human time and labor, should be considered Savings.

Capital comes from Savings.

There are three sources of Savings:

  1. Individuals
  2. Corporations
  3. Governments

The main function of any economy is to transfer capital from Saversto Users for the purpose of economic growth. There are two methods of transferring Capital from Savers to Users:

  1. Direct Investments (these are Real Assets)
  • Infrastructure
  • Equipment
  • Property

And then they carried the water to the well.

2.  Indirect Investments (these are Financial Instruments/Claims)

  • Stocks
  • Bonds

Savers of Capital will invest in Indirect Investments which act as financial instruments and financial intermediaries to transfer savings to the Users of Capital.  These are the mechanisms which function at the core of any financial and economic framework.

Users of Capital will then use those savings to invest in Real Assets, such as commercial and residential real estate, infrastructure development, business, etc.  One of the fundamental purposes for the existence of capital is this investing in productive assets, which promotes economic growth.

The only source of capital is Savings, or the accumulation of human time and labor.  As such, Savers become investors.  There are three types of investors:

  1. Retail Investors
  2. Institutional Investors
  3. Foreign Investors

All three types of investors will make up the composition of multilateral investments.

Users of capital, the target of the investors described above, consist of individuals, business, and governments.  Each are segmented as follows:

  1. Individuals (Individual users of capital do not issue securities and pledge real assets as collateral.)
  • Mortgages
  • Loans

2. Business

a. Stocks (equity)

  • Common
  • Preferred

b. Debt (both long-term and short-term)

  • Bonds (secured)
  • Debentures (unsecured)

4. Government

  • Federal
  • State or Provincial
  • Municipal

As previously mentioned, capital is transferred from Savers toUsersFinancial Instruments/Claims are used to facilitate this allocation of Indirect Investments. (Keeping in mind that Direct Investments consist of Real Assets, such as real estate, equipment, and even gold.) There are different types of Financial Instruments,which are segmented into the two categories of Publically Traded Securities and Privately Traded Securities.  Each are broken out into the following sub-categories:

Publically Traded Securities, or financial instruments/claims, are as follows:

  1. Debt (fixed income)
  • Bonds
  • Debentures
  • Mortgages
  • T-Bills
  • Commercial Paper

2. Equity (stocks)

  • Common
  • Preferred

3. Investment Funds

  • Mutual Funds

4. Derivatives

  • Options
  • Forwards/Futures

5. Other Securities consist of:

  • ETF’s (Exchange Traded Funds)
  • Linked Notes

Privately Traded Securities, or financial instruments/claims, are as follows:

  1. Debt
  2. Equity

In the initial parts of this series we will mainly focus on thePublically Traded Securities, as this offers the best source of opportunity for the average Retail Investor.  For now we will just touch on the sources of Privately Traded Securities, which are as follows:

  1. Investors (angel)
  2. Venture Capital
  3. Private Equity

Sources of savings for the three listed types of Privately Traded Securities include:

  1. Pension Funds
  2. Endowments
  3. High Net Worth individuals

The reason any of the above three would invest in Privately Traded Securities over Publically Traded Securities is because of increased returns, or what is known as Return Enhancement. But with Return Enhancement comes increased risk.

The types of investment which can be made under Privately Traded Securities are the following:

  1. Leveraged Buyouts – Private equity would be the only source for this form of investing.
  2. Growth Capital
  • Early Stage – Angel investors and venture capital would be the two sources of investment.
  • Late Stage – Venture capital and private equity would be the two sources of investment.

3. Turnarounds – Private equity would be the only source of investment.

4. Distressed Debt – Private equity would be the only source of investment.


In Lesson Two we will review Capital Markets and the need forEfficient Capital Markets.  The need for a Multilateral Monetary Framework is to promote a broader and more diverse Efficient Capital Market.  Capital Markets have become inefficient because of the imbalances in the existing USD based unipolar monetary framework.  This transition from a unipolar system to a multilateral system is one of the least understood aspects of what is happening in the monetary and financial world today.  – JC

Capital Markets and the Development of Efficient Capital Markets

By JC Collins

In Lesson One we reviewed the definition of Capital, the relationship between Savers and Users of Capital, and we learned about Financial Instruments, which act as the Intermediariesbetween Savers and Users. In Lesson Two we are going to review the importance of Capital Markets and the need for Efficient Capital Markets.

First, there are multiple types of Capital Markets. There are:

  1. Stock Markets
  2. Bond Markets
  3. Money Markets

These can be further defined by the following:

  1. Auction Market – Investors
  2. Dealer Markets – Financial Institutions

We will review these in more detail below.

What does it mean to have efficient markets?  There are a few main components that are necessary for any market to be considered efficient.  The first two are:

  1. Fast paced transactions.
  2. Low cost of transactions.

Both of these are required for there to be liquidity in any market.  Market liquidity can be further defined as the effect of frequent trading or sales, narrow spreads between bid price and ask price (Auction Market), as well as minimum price variations from sale to sale.

The other main component of any efficient market is Regulation, which we will discuss in another lesson.

The market types as defined above, being stock markets, bond markets, and money markets, can be further segmented. The first of these segments is the Primary Market, which can be further broken down into the following:

  1. New Securities – Indirect financial assets which are sold for the first time, such as Initial Public Offerings (IPO).
  2. Government Bonds – new bond issuance.
  3. Corporate Bonds – new bond issuance.

Remember from Lesson One that governments and business areUsers of Capital.  They offer the purchase of bonds to investors, orSavers of Capital.  As such, in a Primary Market the capital flows from the investor to the company or government.

Governments and companies raise funds by tapping into thePrimary Market.

The other segment we need to consider is the Secondary Market.  This is where already issued securities are traded between investors.  The Secondary Market does not contain new issuance of indirect assets, and trades are made between investors.

The best way to understand this is that in Primary Markets capital flows from Savers to Users.  In the Secondary Market capital flows between Saver and Saver.

As mentioned above, all markets, whether bond markets, money markets, or stock markets, can also fall under either Auction Markets or Dealer Markets.

Auction Markets are made up of investors and are done on exchanges, or competitive bidding.  Investors enter Bids and Offersfor securities.

Bids are considered to be the highest buyer.

Offers are considered to be the lowest seller.

The difference between them is called the Spread.

Note: Auction Markets are made up of Publically Traded Securities.  Reference Lesson One for a review of Publically Traded Securities.

Stock exchanges such as the NYSE and TSX are Auction Markets.  They are made up of senior equities, junior securities, futures/options, and other exchange based securities.

Dealer Markets consist of financial institutions.  These “Dealers” trade with one another and compete with the exchanges in theAuction Markets. Dealer Markets are negotiated as opposed to defined through competitive bidding.

Mostly being used by institutional investors, the Dealer Markets are made up of bonds and debentures, with some equities and customized derivatives.

The above information is important to understand as the difference between the developed nations, or economies, which have largely dominated the international monetary system for decades, already have mature and Efficient Capital Markets.

At least in theory.

Some of the inefficiency which has developed in these markets are because of the systemic imbalances within the international monetary framework.

Which is why it has become extremely important for the multilateral monetary framework to take over piecemeal from the old unipolar framework.

The emerging economies, such as China and India, among many others, need to develop mature and efficient markets in order to facilitate the balancing of the international monetary system.  This is a strategy which is taking years to implement, and must be evolved with patience and care.

Understanding the fundamentals of Capital Markets can help us understand some of the domestic strategies which China is implementing in order to further develop its own markets.  These markets will facilitate the internationalization of the renminbi and increase its fiscal liberalization.


In Lesson Three we will review Financial Intermediaries, which serve the purpose of bringing Savers and Users of Capital together.  We will broaden our understanding of why it is important for China to further develop its RMB denominated Financial Intermediariesfor the purpose of creating Efficient RMB Capital Markets to work alongside USD denominated Capital Markets.  – JC

Financial Intermediaries and Expanding RMB Capital Markets

In Lesson Three we will further review Financial Intermediaries, which serve the purpose of bringing Savers and Users of Capital together.  We will broaden our understanding of why it is important for China to further develop its RMB denominated Financial Intermediaries for the purpose of creating Efficient RMB Capital Markets to work alongside USD denominated Capital Markets.

It is important to remember the differences between the Primary Market and the Secondary Market as we move forward.  For a quick review, the Primary Market deals with new issuance of securities, while the Secondary Market deals with already issued securities.

The full integrated financial market will consist of both the Primaryand Secondary Markets, as well as Institutional Investors andRetail Investors.  Remember in Lesson One that Institutional Investors can consist of such Privately Traded Securities as pension funds and endowments.

A good method of remembering this is by segmenting each into blocks. Institutional Investors can deal in both the Primary (new issuance) Market and the Secondary (already issued) Markets, whileRetail Investors (you and me) can only deal in the Secondary market.

Institutional Retail
Secondary Dealer Dealer
Primary Dealer Not Dealer

Now let’s look closer at some of the Financial Intermediaries, thoseDealers which facilitate the process of transferring Capital fromSavers to Users.

First, and largely, there are Investment Dealers.  These Dealers can service two positions.  In one position they act as a Principle and in another position they act as an Agent.

As a Principle the Dealer will maintain ownership over the security and realize a gain and loss over time.  There are three areas which are the focus of the Principle Dealer:

  1. Underwriting
  2. Inventory
  3. Proprietary Trading

Underwriting facilitates the process of transferring securities from the Primary Market to the Secondary Market. As a Dealer function, building and maintaining Inventory adds liquidity.  This will be a vital component of building broader renminbi liquidity in the international system.

As an Agent, the Dealer takes no ownership over the security and charges commission on all Secondary Market transactions.

Another type of Dealer of Financial Intermediaries are Banks.  AllBanks serve under whatever national bank act regulates each nation.  As a part of the multilateral transition there are supra-sovereign banking regulations which have to be implemented in each region and nation.  The Basel 3 Regulations of the Bank for International Settlements serve in this function.

The Bank Acts, or Bank Regulations of most nations will consist of those banks which are incorporated within the nation, foreign bank subsidiaries which are incorporated in a nation, and foreign banks which only operate branches in a specific nation.

Trust Companies also serve as Financial Intermediaries by taking on most of the services of a retail bank, such as mortgages, but also acting as a trustee for private individuals or corporations.

Credit Unions are another form of Financial Intermediary.  These institutions have members as opposed to clients.  Under nation specific credit cooperative legislation, Credit Unions are limited to offering financial services to members only.

Insurance Companies can also serve as Financial Intermediaries.  As most know, insurance covers life and property, and serves the purpose of a trustee for funds from policy holders.

The rebalancing of the international monetary system will require a major alignment of independent financial systems of the major nations.  This alignment will require such legislation as the Basel 3 Regulations of the BIS, as well as the 2010 Quota and Governance Reforms of the International Monetary Fund.

China, now the world’s largest economy (at least second), has an underdeveloped financial system which needs to be evolved based on the liberalization of the renminbi and its rise to reserve status alongside the US dollar.  All of the items we are covering in this series are meant to help us understand our own domestic financial frameworks, as well as the changes which are taking place in the financial markets of China, India, and other emerging nations.

Each piece will build on the piece before, and readers will gain a more in-depth understanding of the other material which is presented here on POM.  For those interested in gaining a broader understanding of the Chinese financial system, the Brooking Institute recently (from a monetary change point of view) published an overview and introduction.

In the next installment of The Fundamentals of Multilateral Investing series we will begin reviewing financial regulation in more detail.  As the Basel 3 Regulations would suggest, a broader and deeper regulation of the world’s financial markets will be an important aspect of the multilateral monetary framework.  – JC

China Uses the SDR to Reduce American Sovereignty

HOW CHINA IS USING THE SDR TO REDUCE AMERICAN SOVEREIGNTY

After the financial crisis back in 2008 monetary and fiscal planners around the world became increasingly concerned about the effects of the Triffin Paradox.  The large accumulation of US dollars in the foreign exchange reserve accounts around the world forced discussions on dollar alternatives and paths forward which could be taken to rebalance the international monetary framework.

The two major players in these discussions were the United States and China, both of whom play opposing and diametric positions within the international system, with the International Monetary Fund acting as the pivot point.

This emblematic relationship between the United States and China is reflective of the imbalances in the international monetary system.  China has consistently grown large surpluses year over year and has achieved the same with its foreign exchange reserves. A large percentage of these reserves have been invested in US Treasury Bonds.

For America’s part, large and persistent current account deficits have contributed to the growth of substantial foreign debt.  Trump recently discussed this in his Indiana victory speech by repeating the phrase “debtor nation”, driving home the point to the American people that something has to change.

In essence, developing, or emerging nations are transferring reserves to the US and other industrialized countries.  This money is lent at low interest rates which allow the developed nations to live beyond their means and import for mass consumption.

The problem with this monetary system is that creditor nations, like China, become increasingly worried about the large investment they have made into the US dollar.  Future loss of dollar value and a lack of alternative liquidity on a global scale have forced the majority of the world to side with China and other BRICS nations to seek a new framework through the IMF and the broader use of the Special Drawing Right.

The United States, now a debtor nation as Trump stated, has no choice but to relinquish control and power to a growing international consortium of concerned countries and institutions.  The large debt leverage which the rest of the world holds over America has forced a reluctant US government and Treasury department, along with the Federal Reserve, too enact monetary policies which are driving towards this ultimate rebalancing.

The International Monetary Fund will be the driver, and the SDR will be the vehicle.  China, the representative of all emerging nations, is providing the fuel.  But the large amount of US debt held around the world also gives America some bargaining power, which is why the necessary adjustments to the system have dragged out for years since the financial crisis.

Some obvious geopolitical checkmates have developed and the position of the US as the sole superpower in the world has been forever compromised.

In order for there to be an alternative multilateral monetary framework based on the SDR, some fundamental changes had to take place.

  1. The composition of the SDR basket had to change and the Chinese renminbi would have to be added. This has been completed and the new composition comes into effect this October.
  2. Reform of the IMF. This has been completed with the implementation of the 2010 Quota and Governance Reforms.
  3. An increase in SDR allocations. This will be forthcoming once the basket composition is put into effect.
  4. Large issuance of SDR denominated bonds. This is also forthcoming with both China and the G20 stating that SDR denominated bonds are on the horizon.  The People’s Bank of China has communicated their intent to issue these bonds.

The IMF and the G20 are currently working on a plan to broaden the use of the SDR, which will include the above items, two of which have already been implemented.  The other two will happen in a short period of time.

This will all likely take the form of an open-ended SDR denominated fund which will allow for convertibility between SDR and the reserve currencies in the basket.  This will require IMF member countries to entrust a large portion of their foreign exchange reserves to the IMF.  These reserves will be managed through a centralized process based on the open-ended SDR denominated fund.

Transferring large portions of foreign exchange reserves to the IMF is problematic on the domestic level.  It amounts to a loss of sovereignty by member nations. Each country will address this issue differently, but there will be a need to sell such a program to the masses through a type of nationalism, such as Trump is doing while campaigning for the Presidency in the US.

China, and other BRICS nations, have America over a barrel.  The accumulation of US dollars and the large US debt load has created the situation required to consolidate the international monetary system further and reduce sovereignty. The US has some bargaining power but the dye has been cast.

China was the first one to suggest a broader role for the SDR and the IMF, and its movements today are indicative of the continuation of that methodology.  This is very reflective of why both China and Russia, along with Iran, are taking such prominent positions within the geopolitical world.

A TRUMP DEAL ON AMERICA’S BANKRUPTCY

SDR Reserves and SDRM Debt Restructuring

The recent proclamations by Trump regarding America’s debt and the potential of a bankruptcy are the early shots in a negotiating process which will restructure US sovereign debt and move the world towards the multilateral framework.

Most mainstream media are expressing dismay at Trumps statements and stating that this is further evidence he does not understand the complexity of international monetary workings.  But what is not being considered is that the threat of American bankruptcy is pre-positioning for the big show next year.

This is when the international community will begin the process of deeper and broader sovereign debt restructuring discussions.  Trumps flippant remarks should not be taken out of context.  There is a reason he keeps telling us that he is a deal maker.

Along with transferring foreign exchange reserves to the International Monetary Fund, as reviewed in the post above ( How China is using the SDR to reduce American Sovereignty), there will be a method of sovereign debt restructuring.  This restructuring can take a few different paths forward.

One process involves CAC’s, or Collective Action Clauses.  This is the favored methodology of the United States.  The other is the SDRM of the IMF.  The Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism will likely be the core process by which international sovereign debt is considered and restructured.

The broader use of the SDR will provide the base for SDRM negotiations.  While America is more interested I the CAC methodology, the need to transfer reserves to the IMF to support an expansion of SDR liquidity will force the use of the SDRM.

The complex nature of sovereign debt restructuring needs to be communicated to the masses through simple sound bits.  Something which Trump is more than willing to accommodate.  But for those interest I posted an article over a year ago which further defined both CAC’s and the SDRM process.  That material is reposted in its entirety below.

Keep these concepts in mind as you listen to the news and the statements of Trump and other US representatives.

The Sovereign Debt Complex – How China and America Are Waging a Quiet War over Sovereign Debt Restructuring

The most pressing issuing facing the international monetary order today is the threat of sovereign debt defaults and the loss of confidence in sovereign bonds.  The sovereign debt crisis is growing at a brisk pace with most of the attention on Greece.  But many other countries could quickly slide into the limelight and steal the show.  Some of these countries are Spain, Italy, Ireland, and even the United States.

America could find itself in a situation where the world is no longer willing to finance its large account deficits and leave the reserve role of the USD without any international support.  There are many reasons why this would not happen, none more so than to avoid the loss of value on foreign assets which countries like China are heavily invested in.

Being the number one challenge facing the global financial framework, the determination can be made that all other issues, such as RMB internationalization and SDR composition, are sublets which will be required in order to facilitate an orderly and sustainable sovereign debt restructuring process.

The reform of international institutions, such as the IMF, are also a necessary component of addressing the treat of a sovereign debt crisis.  Governance reforms, such as the 2010 IMF Quota and Governance Reforms (2010QGR), are meant to more broadly recognize the emergence of developing countries, such as China and India.  The purpose is to give them a more balanced representation within the International Monetary Fund, leading to a sustainable process of sovereign debt restructuring.

There are two much discussed methods of sovereign debt restructuring.  One is called Collective Action Clauses (CAC), which is a more market oriented solution desired by private investors and some sovereigns, such as the United States and Japan.  The US would seek a market oriented solution such as CAC’s because of the market dominance of the dollar.  Emerging markets, like China, are concerned about the negative market effects of a CAC, based on increased costs and further currency debasement.

The other is the Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism (SDRM), of the International Monetary Fund.  The SDRM, or a modified version of the SDRM, is a structural (non-market) solution to sovereign debt, which is desired by China, and other emerging economies. The obvious nature of the non-market structural changes involved with the SDRM process does not give the largest debtor nation, America, the ability to leverage the process against the needs of the developing countries which largely hold US debt, such as China.

With the United States supporting a market oriented CAC solution to sovereign debt, and China supporting a structural SDRM solution, the delays continue and the world is pushed closer to an all-out sovereign debt crisis with large economies getting closer to defaulting, such as Greece.

Both nations account for the largest borrower and lender sovereigns in the international monetary system.  China is on the extreme lender spectrum, while America is on the extreme borrow spectrum.  Borrower and lender nations are equally responsible for the level of sovereign debt in the world, and all should share the burden in seeking sustainable resolutions.

America, and select investors in USD denominated assets, are the main detractors to an SDRM structural solution.  The reasons have as much to do with value retention of dollar securities as they do with the loss of monetary sovereignty to an international institution such as the IMF.  For other countries, they have lost value on domestic currency and assets, while also giving up monetary sovereignty to the United States.

This diametric foretells the demand and need for a multilateral framework, as an ever increasing deficit of the US cannot be sustained indefinitely.  The American debt ceiling and deficit will again be debated in Congress this October.  The function of raising the debt ceiling will be directly related to the United States ability to get the rest of the world to continue sustaining the role of the dollar.

The International Monetary Fund is being pulled in both directions of CAC and SDRM, as America and China use political leverage and economic interdependency in attempts to push the solution.  The IMF will ultimately seek the sustainability of 2010QGR and SDRM, which is supported by the funds official statements surrounding reforms and the addition of the RMB to the Special Drawing Rights composition this October.

The United States is resisting both 2010QGR and the RMB’s inclusion into the SDR basket.  There are many reasons for this.  When the RMB is added to the SDR, the internationalization of the Chinese currency will increase dramatically as the renminbi liquidity market explodes.  This increase in RMB market liquidity will be measured along a decrease in USD market liquidity. Eventually both markets will balance with one another.  Parallel currencies as it were.

This decrease in USD market liquidity will make the function of a CAC sovereign debt solution less likely, as the CAC process being promoted by USD interests will lose the dollar liquidity which makes a CAC process beneficial for them in the first place.

So, the addition of the RMB to the SDR this October, which comes into effect on January 1, 2016, will expand Chinese currency market liquidity while decreasing American currency market liquidity. This will in turn make a CAC sovereign debt solution unworkable, which will leave a version of SDRM solution as the only viable alternative.  This alternative will also include the use of substitution accounts, which we have widely reviewed here on POM in many previous articles.  These accounts will ensure that no loss of asset value will occur during the transition from USD denominated assets to RMB and SDR denominated assets.

On the geopolitical front, the world is witnessing a wide array of regional and international crisis which all have the United States at the center.  The reasons for this are partially understood by the logic and information presented above.

To expand on that, it is important to understand that the United States uses political, diplomatic, and military means to secure lending from other countries, and ensuring that USD dominance is maintained as a means to continue the deficit spending at home.  In addition, in cases where America is the creditor nation, it uses domestic laws to maximize its interests and create undue hardship and leverage on the borrower nations.  This hardship will usually take the form of resource allocation and deposit development by Western corporations.

The fixed and semi-fixed exchange rates which the dollar has with the currencies of Asian countries like China, Vietnam, and others, has also allowed the United States to finance its large account deficits.  It is probable that if the RMB is included in the SDR, China may end the managed peg with the dollar, which would cause an instant and dramatic effect on America’s ability to raise the debt ceiling in October and continue its policy of deficit spending.

Recently the tension in the South China Sea has picked up as the United States is attempting to intimidate and stop China from projecting its influence in the region.  China is obviously building stationary and fixed equivalents to American air craft carrier groups in the disputed islands area.  These “carrier groups” cannot be sunk and will give China a tremendous naval advantage.

If China can successfully cut the United States out of the South China Sea, then it would put immense pressure on Japan, another larger holder of US debt, to support the SDRM solution to sovereign debt restructuring.  Japan, a country on the verge of its own sovereign debt crisis, much like Greece, cannot hold out much longer before a solution will need to be implemented.  Both Japan and Greece will take the world with it, including China and the United States.

Let’s take a closer look at the process of addressing the sovereign debt situation.

China, as a major international creditor, and now largest economy on Earth, needs to be directly involved in any sovereign debt restructuring mechanism, whether it is the market oriented CAC or structural reforms of an SDRM.

Chinese policy makers are supportive of reforms to the international monetary institutions, such as the IMF and 2010QGR, and the SDRM process. Along with structural sovereign debt solutions, China encourages a reduction in excessive borrowing and lending to support the management of sustainable debt in the future.

Along with that, China’s other main concern is to maintain the value of its foreign assets, such as USD denominated bonds. Use of the SDRM and substitution accounts will be an important aspect of this wealth retention for China.

So, China will support an SDRM process which is based on a balanced representation and governance within the IMF which takes into account the importance of the emerging markets.  It is these markets which have carried the bulk of US debt and deficit spending.

The SDRM process will require RMB market liquidity and the implementation of 2010QGR, or a version which is similar.  The inclusion of the RMB in the SDR composition will also be required.  But could the RMB be included in the SDR while still maintaining the managed peg to the USD?  This would allow for an increase in RMB market liquidity and still give the USD the dominant position internationally.  America could be negotiating exactly this position as it faces the inevitability of an expansion of RMB market liquidity.

The internationalization of the renminbi began in 2002 when Hong Kong asset managers were given permission to begin buying and selling RMB denominated exchange-traded securities in China. Since that time the internationalization picked up pace and is now somewhat substantial based on the diversity of Bi-Lateral Swap Agreements (BSA) which the People’s Bank of China has established with central banks all around the world, and the establishment of the BRICS Development Bank and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

RMB denominated gold funds through the Shanghai Gold Exchange is another method which China is expanding RMB market liquidity. This gold fund will help China manage a sustainable capital account liberalization which will be difficult to manipulate from external foreign sources.  This SGE RMB gold fund does not support the thesis of some analysts which suggest China is overthrowing the western banking system by starting a central bank for gold. This article alone should strongly support the errors in such alarmist conclusions.

The full internationalization of the RMB will be achieved when it is functioning as an international unit of account, means of payment, and store of value.  This status of internationalization will require a deep and liquid financial market, which is being realized by the implementation of such functions as the SGE and BSA’s.  This will foster off-shore financial centers to support RMB denominated transactions.

The forthcoming Asian trade agreement, AEC, will also further broaden RMB market liquidity.  The AEC comes into effect on January 1, 2016, the same date as the updated SDR composition.

For all of this, RMB capital account liberalization and internationalization needs to be accelerated if the sovereign debt crisis is to be averted.  But caution needs to be considered as an acceleration of RMB internationalization could potentially expose the international financial system to greater risk if not handled in a methodical manner and through agreements with all countries, including the United States.

If the RMB is not included in the SDR, and IMF 2010QGR is not implemented when Chinese financial markets are fully liberalized, leading to the opening of the capital account of the balance of payments, the risk to the international financial system could exceed the risks which exist today.  The sovereign debt crisis would not have been effectively addressed and no agreed upon multilateral solution would have been implemented.

Removing the remaining restrictions on the use of RMB for international transactions, which the SDR and 2010QGR would achieve, will also force Chinese policy makers to implement a more flexible exchange rate in order to accommodate the larger volumes of RMB financial flows.

This is likely why the United States is leveraging to agree on structural reforms but not allow the RMB to become a part of the SDR composition.  If both reforms and SDR inclusion are achieved, it will all but ensure that the managed peg to the dollar will have to end.  Which in turn will prevent America from continuing its current level of deficit spending.

Vietnam has also made it clear that they could potentially end the fixed peg to the USD and peg to their largest trading partner China. In such a situation, and under the AEC trade agreement, other Asian countries will follow, leaving the USD with dramatically reduced market liquidity.

The United States is caught in a situation in which it requires the rest of the world to facilitate the orderly transition out of the global sovereign debt crisis.  Yet, in order to do so it must give up much of the financial and monetary power and leverage which it has wielded over the last 70 years.

The sovereign debt crisis, which is really a lack of confidence in sovereign bonds, will continue to affect all countries.  The threat of complete collapse of the bond markets should be enough to push both private investors and sovereign countries to agree on institutional reform and a restructuring method, such as the SDRM. The CAC market oriented solution which America favors will only continue the systemic imbalances which have been partially responsible for creating the situation in the first place.

If an agreement on these matters cannot be reached, the world could very well be heading for a sovereign debt implosion.  Let’s hope that cooler heads prevail and a new multilateral framework can be implemented for the benefit of all countries and people.

Your Taxes are Due Again, and the Russians Used a Pencil

When NASA started sending astronauts into space, they quickly discovered that ball-point pens would not work in zero gravity. To combat this problem, NASA scientists spent a decade and $12 billion Space Pendeveloping a pen (The Space Notes FN-19) that writes in zero gravity, upside-down, on almost any surface including glass and at temperatures ranging from below freezing to over 300 C.

The Russians used a pencil !

Your taxes are due again – enjoy paying them.

Iran calls out the US and EU before the IMF and the World Bank

Iran calls on U.S., EU to help it access global financial system

Markets | Fri Apr 15, 2016 1:52pm EDT
A staff member removes the Iranian flag from the stage during the Iran nuclear talks in Vienna, Austria July 14, 2015. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
A staff member removes the Iranian flag from the stage during the Iran nuclear talks in Vienna, Austria July 14, 2015. REUTERS/Carlos Barria

 

Iran on Friday called on the United States and the European Union to help it access the global financial system, including assets that Tehran says were supposed to be unfrozen following its historic nuclear deal with major international powers.

“They need to do whatever is needed to honor their commitments,” Iranian central bank Governor Valiollah Seif said at an event on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank spring meetings in Washington.

“Otherwise the JCPOA (Iran nuclear deal) breaks up under its own terms,” he said.

Seif met with U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew on Thursday and said they discussed Iran’s expectations under the July 2015 nuclear agreement. Under that deal, Iran agreed to limit its nuclear program in exchange for improved access to the global economy, including the dropping of certain economic sanctions.

Lew told Seif at that meeting that the United States would keep meeting “its sanctions-related commitments in good faith” as long as Iran continues to uphold its end of the bargain, a Treasury official said in a statement.

Iran is increasingly exacerbated that few trade deals are going through as foreign banks shy away from processing transactions with the country even after the nuclear-related sanctions were lifted.

“In general we are not able to use our frozen funds abroad,” Seif said.

Iranian hopes of rapidly ending the country’s economic isolation are fading as European banks in particular, some of which have already been hit by hit huge U.S. fines for sanctions busting, fear falling afoul of the many other restrictions imposed by Washington that remain in force.

“We want both sides of this agreement, especially the U.S., to take the required measures to remove the obstacles,” Seif said.

He urged Iran’s partners in the deal to hold more “face-to-face contacts” with international bankers to assure them they won’t be penalized for working with Tehran. He said the United States needed to make changes to its laws and regulations to give Iran access to the U.S. financial system.

U.S. banks are still forbidden to do business with Iran. While lenders based elsewhere are not covered by this ban, major problems remain, mainly rules prohibiting transactions in dollars from being processed through the U.S. financial system.

(Reporting by Jason Lange; Editing by Paul Simao)

White House Response: Access to global financial system not part of Iran nuclear deal

Politics | Fri Apr 15, 2016 1:52pm EDT
White-house-Iran-response
White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest says “the agreement that’s included in the JCPOA does not include giving Iran access to the US financial system.”

An agreement with Iran aimed at preventing it from developing nuclear weapons does not include giving it access to the global financial system, the White House said on Friday.

The comment from a White House spokesman at a regular news briefing followed a request by Iran’s central bank governor earlier on Friday for the United States and European Union to help Iran access to the global financial system.

(Reporting by Roberta Rampton; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

http://presstv.ir/Detail/2016/04/15/460963/US-Iran-nuclear-deal-sanctions-JCPOA/

The United States says the Iran nuclear deal does not include any provision that allows the Islamic Republic to have access to the US financial system.

The deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was struck between Iran and the P5+1 – the United States, France, Britain, China, Russia and Germany – on July 4, 2015.

After the two sides started to implement the JCPOA on January 16, all nuclear-related sanctions imposed on Tehran by the European Union, the Security Council and the US were lifted. Iran has, in return, put some limitations on its nuclear activities.

On Friday, White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest said “the agreement that’s included in the JCPOA does not include giving Iran access to the US financial system or to allow the execution of so-called U-turn transactions.”

Earnest’s remarks came after Head of Iran’s Central Bank Valiollah Seif, who is in Washington for the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, said earlier in the day that the US and its European allies “need to do whatever is needed to honor their commitments.”

“If it means more face-to-face contacts with the international banks assuring them they do not penalize them working in Iran, if it means making changes to the laws and regulations to give access to the US financial systems — allow U-turn, whatever is needed — they need to do,” Seif added.

Earnest said that “the United States, along with the rest of the international community, is committed to living up to our end of the bargain.”

In addition, US State Department spokesman John Kirby said Washington has already fulfilled its part of the nuclear deal.

“There is no need to do more, when we have met all of our commitments,” Kirby told reporters later in the day.

On April 6, US Secretary of State John Kerry said that Iran deserves access to the US financial system because it had met its obligations under the nuclear agreement.

“It’s fair for Iran to get what it deserves because it kept its part of the bargain to date, with respect to the nuclear agreement,” Kerry said during an interview on MSNBC.

US banks are still banned from dealing with Iran as part of an old US trade embargo that still remains in place. Accordingly, this is believed to have already effectively blocked any transactions with Iran which is based on US dollars because they would ultimately have to be cleared in the US.

Indications had been specifically growing lately that a legacy of hefty fines by the US on banks that are caught for violating Iran sanctions is deterring businesses from trading with Iran.

Meanwhile, Republicans have charged the Obama administration with trying to allow dollar-denominated transactions with Iran that are done through foreign banks, and say that concession goes against the will of Congress.

Last month, a group of US Republican senators also introduced legislation to impose new sanctions against Iran over what legislators have described as Tehran’s “support for terrorism and human rights violations,” accusations that have been vehemently denied by Iran.